THE FUTURE OF OIL, GAS AND COAL IN VIETNAM

Therefore, domestic oil production has continuously declined at a compound rate of 10.8% since 2015. The main reason was that there have been no major oil and gas exploitation projects in recent years. Meanwhile, most of the existing mines in Vietnam are at the end of their mine life, with a natural decline of 15-25% per year.

Currently, Vietnam has about 50% of unexploited oil and gas reserves, of which gas reserves account for about 60-70%.

Calculated in the period 2011-2016, the 5-year compound growth rate of the domestic gas industry averaged 4.0%, although the rate has decreased sharply compared to the period 2001-2006 (about 35.7%), this rate is still higher than 1.5% of the global gas industry. It is forecast that in the 2016-2025 period, the domestic gas industry will still have many growth drivers, and the main driving force comes from LPG (Liquefied petroleum gas) gas used in the civil sector, which is expected to reach 7.6%/year since the demand for LPG in daily life is an essential need and the current usage per capita in Vietnam is still very low. Besides, the gas thermal power development plan will be promoted with electricity output from 8.8 GW in 2015 to 15 GW in 2025, contributing to the development of the gas industry. In another picture, according to the Draft National Energy Development Plan for the 2021-2030 period, gas production is expected to exceed crude oil production in the 2021-25 period with an average output of 11.1 billion m3/year. Therefore, gas field development projects will be the highlight in the coming period.

In the retail petroleum market, in 2021, the recovery rate of petroleum trading companies was slowed down in the second half of the year due to the outbreak of the Delta variant. However, Vietnam's petroleum market still has plenty of room for growth in 2022, supported by people's travel demand and Vietnam's production activity recovering from the fourth quarter of 2021 onwards when the government has decided to ease the social distancing.

Along with that, the consumption of petroleum products per capita is low compared to other countries in the region. As a developing country with a high GDP growth rate of about 7% per year with a current rise of the middle class, it is forecast that car demand will quickly recover when the pandemic is under control from the fourth quarter of 2021, bringing benefits to major petroleum distributors in Vietnam.

According to the Draft National Energy Development Plan for the 2021-2030 period, the Government expects Vietnam's petroleum demand to grow by 5.5% per year during the same period, much higher than the global growth rate, which is 1.3%/year.

Coal

According to the forecast in the adjusted master plan "Planning for development of Vietnam's coal industry to 2020, with a view to 2030" (approved under Decision No. 403/2016/QD-TTG dated March 14, 2016, of the Prime Minister). Government - abbreviated as QH 403/2016) coal demand of Vietnam, especially coal demand for electricity production is increasing. Specifically, from 2020 to 2030, the electricity is expected: (million tons): In 2020: 64.1, 2025: 96.5 and 2030: 131.1.

On the whole, the increase of coal demand in Vietnam, specifically, electricity production, is necessary and completely acceptable for a young, dynamic, and developing country like Vietnam in all aspects: Electricity demand, level of using coal, the role of coal in ensuring the energy security, as well as the suitability with the development trend of coal and coal-fired power plants in the world, especially countries in the region.

According to the latest update, coal demand for electricity will still increase but at the same time, decrease, compared to the forecast in QH 403/2016 above. Accordingly, the general coal demand according to the new forecast will be (million tons): In 2020: 59.5, 2025: 86, in 2030: 119.4, and in 2035: 127.5.

Therefore, by 2030 - 2035 coal demand for electricity will be 3 times higher than in 2017.

In another picture, in 2019, Vietnam's per capita coal consumption was 21.43 (EJ/person) which was very low compared to many countries in the world and region such as (EJ/person): Kazakhstan (90.03), Australia (70, 61), Taiwan (68.54), Korea (67.16), South Africa (65.05), Czech Republic (56.0), Poland (50.38), Japan (38.71), Hong Kong (35.0), USA (34.11). Meanwhile, the CO2 emissions from the energy industry per capita in 2019 (Tons/person): Australia's 17.0, US 15.09, Kazakhstan 12.93, Hong Kong 12.75, South Korea 12.47, Taiwan 11.72, Russia 10.5, Czech 9.22, Japan 8.86, Germany 8.19, South Africa 8.17, Poland 8.02, China 6.85, and Vietnam 2,96.

According to the forecast in the JEEI Outlook 2018 Normal Scenario (October 2017) to 2030 the world's per capita coal demand (Toe/person) is: 0.5; in which China's: 1.48; Japan: 0.93; Korea:1.74; Taiwan: 1.75; Malaysia: 0.86; Thailand: 0.35; US: 0.78; Australia: 1.18. Nevertheless, by 2030, Vietnam's coal demand is expected to be equivalent to about 80.4 million Toe, per capita about 0.73 Toe/person (corresponding to the anticipated population of 110 million people).

All in all, compared to the world per capita, Vietnam's coal demand by 2030 will be higher, but still much lower than that of many countries, especially Taiwan, Korea, China, Australia, Japan, and some countries which are rich in coal resources.